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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET23:00 UTC

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Total Vol: 496.5 PMCloses in 23d

Will Google release its next Gemini Pro model by October 31, 2026?

OPEN · Closes Nov 4, 2026, 03:59 UTC

Last trade 22%

How a market resolves
  1. 1

    Trade

    Buy and sell shares while the market is open. Prices show what the crowd expects.

  2. 2

    Close

    Trading stops and the creator posts the result. A market that follows a source market settles exactly as its source does.

  3. 3

    Result posted

    The result comes from the market's named source. A rarely used final review handles any problem before it becomes final.

  4. 4

    Settled

    The result is finalised and every winning share pays out. Anything left unresolved is reviewed first.

Full resolution rules

Price History

PriceSharesTotal (PM)
Spread: 0.03Mid 0.185
—available
If correct
--
Average price
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Fee
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Resolution rules

How this market resolves

  • 1
    Resolution criteria

    Resolves Yes if Google makes a new Gemini model labeled "Pro" (for example gemini-3.5-pro or gemini-4.0-pro-preview) available to the general public between September 30, 2026 and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Open betas and open rolling waitlists count; closed betas and private access do not. A general-availability promotion of an existing Pro preview may count. Flash, Flash-Lite and other non-Pro models do not count. Otherwise resolves No. Source: official information from Google, verified by a consensus of credible reporting. Resolution: the outcome is the common consensus of major outlets reporting on this event. Outcome 1 ("Yes") resolves if the reported outcome is "Yes", and outcome 2 ("No") if it is "No". Trading closes Nov 1, 2026, 03:59 UTC. If that consensus is absent, ambiguous, or reports the event as void or 50/50, this market resolves VOID and stakes are returned. If no clean, final, undisputed outcome is available by this market's resolution deadline, the outcome is determined by Problee's community resolution process.Follows Polymarket ↗

Insights

Researched 0 hours ago · 5 sources checked

  • 1
    What decides this market?

    Resolves Yes if a new Pro-labelled Gemini model (a new version, or a GA promotion of an existing Preview) becomes publicly accessible between market creation and 2026-10-31 ET. Open beta or an open waitlist counts. Closed or private access does not. Google's official information is the primary source, checked against credible reporting.

  • 2
    What's happened lately?

    2026-10-07: Google's Gemini API changelog lists Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (`gemini-3.1-pro-preview`, released 2026-02-19) as the latest Pro model. A `gemini-3.1-pro-preview-customtools` endpoint also exists. I found no newer Pro model there. The fetch tool summarised the page and I did not read it dir… gemini.google

    2026-02-19: Gemini 3.1 Pro launched in preview and rolled out to the Gemini app. (Google blog; TechCrunch) ai.google.dev · blog.google

    2025-11-18: Gemini 3 Pro Preview was released. It was shut down on 2026-03-09. (Google AI changelog) ai.google.dev

    2026-10-07: 2026-10: The changelog's recommended models are newer Flash versions (3.6, 3.7 and 3.8 Flash), so Flash has been updated more recently than Pro. (Google AI changelog, summarised) ai.google.dev

    2026-10-07: 2026-05 to 2026-06: Gemini 3.5 Pro was announced in May for June but never shipped. Secondary sites say it was shelved in favour of Gemini 4. These are not official statements. (aiwiz.uk; Futuresearch; X posts) aiwiz.uk

    2026-10-07: 2026-09: Leak reports say Google released a first checkpoint of an upcoming Pro model, possibly Gemini 4 Pro, with a public release expected in October 2026. They cite an internal codename 'Argon' seen on public evaluation leaderboards. These come from X posts, nokiapoweruser and geeky-gadgets. Goo… ai.google.dev · gemini.google · blog.google · nokiapoweruser.com · aiwiz.uk

  • 3
    What would change it?

    No official Google event is confirmed. Rumours point to a possible Gemini 4 Pro launch in October 2026 (by 2026-10-31). The Gemini API changelog and gemini.google/release-notes would show it.

  • 4
    What's the case for YES, and for NO?

    YES:

    NO:

Research, not advice.

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