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Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?

OPEN · Closes Jul 2, 2027, 03:59 UTC

Last trade 77%

How a market resolves

1
Trade
Buy and sell shares while the market is open. Prices show what the crowd expects.
2
Close
Trading stops and the creator posts the result. A market that follows a source market settles exactly as its source does.
3
Result posted
The result comes from the market's named source. A rarely used final review handles any problem before it becomes final.
4
Settled
The result is finalised and every winning share pays out. Anything left unresolved is reviewed first.

Full resolution rules

Price History

Spread: 0.27Mid 0.645

Amount (PM)—available

If correct: --
Average price: --
Fee: --

Resolution rules

How this market resolves

1
Resolution criteria
Resolves to the official outcome of this event: outcome 1 is "Yes" and outcome 2 is "No". Resolution: the outcome is the common consensus of major outlets reporting on this event. Outcome 1 ("Yes") resolves if the reported outcome is "Yes", and outcome 2 ("No") if it is "No". Trading closes Jul 1, 2027, 03:59 UTC. If that consensus is absent, ambiguous, or reports the event as void or 50/50, this market resolves VOID and stakes are returned. If no clean, final, undisputed outcome is available by this market's resolution deadline, the outcome is determined by Problee's community resolution process.Follows Polymarket

Insights

Researched 0 hours ago · 1 source checked

What decides this market?
Resolves Yes if the next Claude model named 'Haiku' with version 4.6 or higher (e.g. Haiku 5) is added to the Arena.AI Text Arena Overall leaderboard (style control off) and its displayed Score, without an 'AutoEval' label, is at least 1440 at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar day after it first appears. Haiku 4.5 and its snapshots don't qualify. If several models appear the same day, the highest score is used. A model removed before that noon check doesn't count.
What's happened lately?
2025-10-15: Anthropic released Claude Haiku 4.5, priced at $1/$5 per million tokens (Computerworld and other coverage). www.computerworld.com
2026-10-07: My search found no announcement or release of Claude Haiku 4.6 or Haiku 5. Haiku 4.5 is the latest Haiku I found. I did not check Anthropic's site directly. www.computerworld.com
2026-10-07: Not checked: Haiku 4.5's current Arena score, and whether any Haiku 4.6+ entry exists on the leaderboard. www.computerworld.com
What would change it?
What's the case for YES, and for NO?
YES:
NO:

Research, not advice.

Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?

OPEN · Closes Jul 2, 2027, 03:59 UTC

Last trade 77%

How a market resolves

1
Trade
Buy and sell shares while the market is open. Prices show what the crowd expects.
2
Close
Trading stops and the creator posts the result. A market that follows a source market settles exactly as its source does.
3
Result posted
The result comes from the market's named source. A rarely used final review handles any problem before it becomes final.
4
Settled
The result is finalised and every winning share pays out. Anything left unresolved is reviewed first.

Full resolution rules

Price History

Spread: 0.27Mid 0.645

Amount (PM)—available

If correct: --
Average price: --
Fee: --

Resolution rules

How this market resolves

1
Resolution criteria
Resolves to the official outcome of this event: outcome 1 is "Yes" and outcome 2 is "No". Resolution: the outcome is the common consensus of major outlets reporting on this event. Outcome 1 ("Yes") resolves if the reported outcome is "Yes", and outcome 2 ("No") if it is "No". Trading closes Jul 1, 2027, 03:59 UTC. If that consensus is absent, ambiguous, or reports the event as void or 50/50, this market resolves VOID and stakes are returned. If no clean, final, undisputed outcome is available by this market's resolution deadline, the outcome is determined by Problee's community resolution process.Follows Polymarket

Insights

Researched 0 hours ago · 1 source checked

What decides this market?
Resolves Yes if the next Claude model named 'Haiku' with version 4.6 or higher (e.g. Haiku 5) is added to the Arena.AI Text Arena Overall leaderboard (style control off) and its displayed Score, without an 'AutoEval' label, is at least 1440 at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar day after it first appears. Haiku 4.5 and its snapshots don't qualify. If several models appear the same day, the highest score is used. A model removed before that noon check doesn't count.
What's happened lately?
2025-10-15: Anthropic released Claude Haiku 4.5, priced at $1/$5 per million tokens (Computerworld and other coverage). www.computerworld.com
2026-10-07: My search found no announcement or release of Claude Haiku 4.6 or Haiku 5. Haiku 4.5 is the latest Haiku I found. I did not check Anthropic's site directly. www.computerworld.com
2026-10-07: Not checked: Haiku 4.5's current Arena score, and whether any Haiku 4.6+ entry exists on the leaderboard. www.computerworld.com
What would change it?
What's the case for YES, and for NO?
YES:
NO:

Research, not advice.

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Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?

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Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?

Trade

Close

Result posted

Settled