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Will Google release its next Gemini Pro model by October 31, 2026?

OPEN · Closes Nov 4, 2026, 03:59 UTC

Last trade 19%

How a market resolves

1
Trade
Buy and sell shares while the market is open. Prices show what the crowd expects.
2
Close
Trading stops and the creator posts the result. A market that follows a source market settles exactly as its source does.
3
Result posted
The result comes from the market's named source. A rarely used final review handles any problem before it becomes final.
4
Settled
The result is finalised and every winning share pays out. Anything left unresolved is reviewed first.

Price History

Order book

Amount (PM)—available

Resolution rules

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Resolution criteria
Resolves Yes if Google makes a new Gemini model labeled "Pro" (for example gemini-3.5-pro or gemini-4.0-pro-preview) available to the general public between September 30, 2026 and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Open betas and open rolling waitlists count; closed betas and private access do not. A general-availability promotion of an existing Pro preview may count. Flash, Flash-Lite and other non-Pro models do not count. Otherwise resolves No. Source: official information from Google, verified by a consensus of credible reporting. Resolution: the outcome is the common consensus of major outlets reporting on this event. Outcome 1 ("Yes") resolves if the reported outcome is "Yes", and outcome 2 ("No") if it is "No". Trading closes Nov 1, 2026, 03:59 UTC. If that consensus is absent, ambiguous, or reports the event as void or 50/50, this market resolves VOID and stakes are returned. If no clean, final, undisputed outcome is available by this market's resolution deadline, the outcome is determined by Problee's community resolution process.Follows Polymarket